Balancing modern currencies and global monetary policies Thursday, July 25 Julia Coronado Fed Chair Jerome Powell was peppered with concern from both sides of the aisle in his recent testimony to Congress. Advocates of a return to the gold standard worry about limits to power in a world of fiat currencies and flexible money supply. Others fear cryptocurrencies are a direct challenge to fiscal and monetary policies that tax, spend, stimulate or restrict. What’s next? More...
Exploring a portrait of increased diversity and economic challenge Thursday, June 27 Julia Coronado Now at the age associated with rising earning power, marriage, home ownership and kids, Millennials bear a lasting imprint from the Great Recession with less wealth than prior generations at the same stage. But there’s still time for them to benefit from rising real wages, especially if the US avoids a recession. Baby Boomers survived double-dip drops in the 80s and recovered. More...
The risk of a recession is elevated, but it’s not a forgone conclusion Thursday, June 6 Julia Coronado Rising tariffs, non-tariff trade actions and retaliation are increasing headwinds to the economy just as the expansion becomes the longest since WWII. While the trade war is a contributing factor behind lackluster earnings in 2019, the stock market has rebounded from Q4 turbulence. Only one of three Fed recession models – the one based on the yield curve slope – is flashing red. More...
Younger households are borrowing less. Why? Thursday, May 16 Julia Coronado Real household debt per capita is growing again, following declines during and after the housing crisis as many consumers defaulted on or paid down mortgages. The good news is that rising debt does not appear to threaten the financial wellbeing of US households. The bad? Less borrowing by younger households may reveal a lack of prosperity. More...
At look at how the Fed uses its balance sheet to ease and tighten policy Thursday, May 2 Julia Coronado After lowering short term interest rates to zero during the financial crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by buying Treasury and Mortgage bonds in a process commonly known as Quantitative Easing (QE). Lately the Fed has reversed the process with Quantitative Tightening (QT). These policies have grown common in advanced economies yet our understanding of them is a work in progress. More...
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