Happy but cautious households continue to struggle with wealth growth Thursday, October 18 Julia Coronado Growth in consumer spending is healthy. Yet two conundrums are deepening for forecasters. The first is the death of the wealth effect. The other is why high levels of consumer sentiment aren’t boosting spending. The answer seems to lie in subdued wage growth, which somehow hasn’t dampened consumer satisfaction. More...
Or will market momentum cool in its own time? Thursday, October 4 Julia Coronado The Fed continued raising interest rates in September, even as the economy continues to run strong and financial markets flirt with new record highs on a range of asset prices. While the Fed’s dual mandates center on achieving stable inflation and full employment, it has a long and complicated relationship with frothy asset prices. More...
Seismic structural shifts challenge the forecasters Thursday, September 20 Julia Coronado While most analysts are pondering the lessons learned from the global financial crisis, we and other researchers have been grappling with seismic structural shifts in the macroeconomy. These changes pose a number of puzzles, and how we square these circles has implications for businesses, households, investors and policymakers. More...
Recent developments in New Jersey’s housing market Thursday, September 6 Michel Eckersley While housing prices have recovered and even begun surging in the decade since the market collapse, individual homeownership is below pre-recession levels. What is driving this development? One possible answer: Institutional investors, including limited liability companies, REITs and other financial entities, which have doubled their share of housing purchases. More...
The economy is booming, but it’s not contributing. How come? Thursday, August 23 Julia Coronado Residential investment has been absent in GDP growth despite otherwise stellar performance. Even in a hiring boom, shifting cultural attitudes and underlying economic anxieties among Millennials point to persistently slower household formation. The sector isn’t declining, but its days of driving GDP likely are behind us. More...
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