Macroeconomy
So far, so good for 2019. But questions lurk. Thursday, February 21 Julia Coronado Nearly all private sector forecasters predict slowing economic growth. Though delayed in the US last year by the sugar rush from the fiscal stimulus, it started to take hold abroad. Patience on the part of global monetary policy makers and the Chinese fiscal stimulus will likely combine to keep the US and global economies in soft landing territory, but uncertainty is higher than usual. More...
Macroeconomy
Public property: the central role of government information Thursday, February 7 Julia Coronado As we recover from the longest federal government shutdown in history – and face the possibility of another one – it’s a good time to reflect on the value of public goods and services. Much government data was not available during the shutdown, and its contribution to private and public sector decision-making is complex and profound. More...
Macroeconomy
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) pulls up a chair Thursday, January 24 Julia Coronado The US and other advanced economies have seen steadily rising government deficits and debt as a percent of GDP in recent decades, a development that no mainstream economic theory says is optimal. Yet even as borrowing rises, a consensus has been growing that rising deficits may not be the problem once believed. More...
Macroeconomy
Taking stock: Five key financial market developments in 2018 Thursday, January 10 Julia Coronado After years of a bull run, we learned the stock market is still subject to the laws of gravity. The global economy provided poignant reminders that no country can go it alone. Inflation? So far benign. And the 10--year Treasury yield curve trends positive despite widening fiscal deficits. So far market pricing doesn’t point to a recession, or that monetary policy will be the cause. More...
Macroeconomy
A maturing auto cycle signals an increasingly precarious outlook Thursday, December 13 Julia Coronado After real estate, the auto sector is the most adversely impacted by rising interest rates. Sales historically fall 12-24 months before an expansion ends, making them a good economic indicator. The US market embodies the challenges of the broader economy and while it won’t cause the next downturn, recent news hints at a turn into fragile territory. More...
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