A maturing auto cycle signals an increasingly precarious outlook Thursday, December 13 Julia Coronado After real estate, the auto sector is the most adversely impacted by rising interest rates. Sales historically fall 12-24 months before an expansion ends, making them a good economic indicator. The US market embodies the challenges of the broader economy and while it won’t cause the next downturn, recent news hints at a turn into fragile territory. More...
The macroeconomic impact is still moderate but quickly intensifying Thursday, November 29 Julia Coronado A recent Trump Administration report warns of intensifying disruption to human and economic activity from climate change. It is no longer a question whether the earth’s temperature is rising, but how quickly it will continue to rise — and how disruptive and costly it will be to human activity and well-being. More...
Urban Revival
For the new varietal in place-based development, time will tell Thursday, November 15 Stephen Malpezzi Opportunity Zones are the latest in a series of place-based economic development programs. Is this simply “old wine in new bottles?” Or do Opportunity Zones have features that may yield improvements over the spotty performance of previous programs? More...
Navigating the economic expansion may get trickier in 2019 Thursday, November 1 Julia Coronado The news flow on the US economy has been very good. The latest GDP report showed growth on track to achieve 3.0% in 2018. Looking ahead, growth looks poised to moderate in 2019 as a number of supports fade. Calibrating a sustainable pace is likely to become harder for the Fed to achieve over the next year. More...
Happy but cautious households continue to struggle with wealth growth Thursday, October 18 Julia Coronado Growth in consumer spending is healthy. Yet two conundrums are deepening for forecasters. The first is the death of the wealth effect. The other is why high levels of consumer sentiment aren’t boosting spending. The answer seems to lie in subdued wage growth, which somehow hasn’t dampened consumer satisfaction. More...
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