A steady economic performer confronts heavy weather. Thursday, October 24 Julia Coronado The New York metropolitan area (NYMA) is in a relatively stable and solid state from a business cycle perspective with a tight labor market employed in a diverse array of service industries, rising wages and a low unemployment rate. However, the region faces a number of structural headwinds that weigh on its growth prospects. More...
Yes. But an aging population may make a recovery harder too. Thursday, September 26 Julia Coronado Aging societies, common to many countries, mean more spending and share of labor employed in health care — a sector much less subject to cyclical swings. This stability has cushioned against headwinds from a slowing global economy and rising uncertainties around trade policy. But it also means the traditional monetary policy tools used to pull an economy out of recession are likely to be less effective. More...
Politics and a cooling economy create a challenging environment. Thursday, September 12 Julia Coronado President Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve have intensified in recent months as the economy has showed signs of cooling. The Fed has responded by studiously maintaining open lines with Congress and adopting a methodical and transparent approach to policy making. Yet any turning point sometimes comes with stumbles in Fed communication and the current environment is no exception. More...
Yes, but it’s unlikely to be the primary catalyst for a recession. Thursday, August 29 Julia Coronado Housing is one of the economy’s most cyclical sectors. Historically, it has dragged GDP growth ahead of post-war recessions and lowered growth by more than a point at the peak of a downturn. Housing has currently been a drag on GDP growth for the past six quarters ending Q2 2019. But given other indicators, how significant is it for predicting recession? More...
Balancing modern currencies and global monetary policies Thursday, July 25 Julia Coronado Fed Chair Jerome Powell was peppered with concern from both sides of the aisle in his recent testimony to Congress. Advocates of a return to the gold standard worry about limits to power in a world of fiat currencies and flexible money supply. Others fear cryptocurrencies are a direct challenge to fiscal and monetary policies that tax, spend, stimulate or restrict. What’s next? More...
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