The risk of a recession is elevated, but it’s not a forgone conclusion Thursday, June 6 Julia Coronado Rising tariffs, non-tariff trade actions and retaliation are increasing headwinds to the economy just as the expansion becomes the longest since WWII. While the trade war is a contributing factor behind lackluster earnings in 2019, the stock market has rebounded from Q4 turbulence. Only one of three Fed recession models – the one based on the yield curve slope – is flashing red. More...
Younger households are borrowing less. Why? Thursday, May 16 Julia Coronado Real household debt per capita is growing again, following declines during and after the housing crisis as many consumers defaulted on or paid down mortgages. The good news is that rising debt does not appear to threaten the financial wellbeing of US households. The bad? Less borrowing by younger households may reveal a lack of prosperity. More...
At look at how the Fed uses its balance sheet to ease and tighten policy Thursday, May 2 Julia Coronado After lowering short term interest rates to zero during the financial crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by buying Treasury and Mortgage bonds in a process commonly known as Quantitative Easing (QE). Lately the Fed has reversed the process with Quantitative Tightening (QT). These policies have grown common in advanced economies yet our understanding of them is a work in progress. More...
Politics, partisanship and Fed independence Tuesday, April 16 Julia Coronado President Trump has made a habit of publicly lambasting the Fed and making bombastic recommendations for monetary policy. Moreover, he plans to nominate two men whose most recent roles have been commentators for the Republican party. Political pressure on the Fed is nothing new. But overtly partisan moves increase conflicting signals in the near term and could do more lasting damage to the economy in the longer term. More...
The trends and drivers of US Labor Force Participation say ‘maybe.’ Thursday, March 21 Julia Coronado A building block of economic prosperity amid the demographic shifts in most countries – declining births and aging populations – is boosting labor force participation (LPF) of men and women in their prime working years. Since a peak LPF in the 90s, the US has bucked world trends and gone from some of the highest prime-aged participation to among the lowest. Recent upswings suggest change. More...
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