Macroeconomy
Politics, partisanship and Fed independence Tuesday, April 16 Julia Coronado President Trump has made a habit of publicly lambasting the Fed and making bombastic recommendations for monetary policy. Moreover, he plans to nominate two men whose most recent roles have been commentators for the Republican party. Political pressure on the Fed is nothing new. But overtly partisan moves increase conflicting signals in the near term and could do more lasting damage to the economy in the longer term. More...
Macroeconomy
The trends and drivers of US Labor Force Participation say ‘maybe.’ Thursday, March 21 Julia Coronado A building block of economic prosperity amid the demographic shifts in most countries – declining births and aging populations – is boosting labor force participation (LPF) of men and women in their prime working years. Since a peak LPF in the 90s, the US has bucked world trends and gone from some of the highest prime-aged participation to among the lowest. Recent upswings suggest change. More...
Macroeconomy
Signals that momentum now moves East to West Thursday, March 7 Julia Coronado While US Q4 GDP registered a solid performance, global weakness signals slower growth for the US. Today’s post examines the contours of the current global slowdown, assesses its drivers and prospects and compares it to the 2015/2016 experience when the US economy wobbled but held up. Like most ebbs and flows in the global economy this one has origins in China. More...
Macroeconomy
So far, so good for 2019. But questions lurk. Thursday, February 21 Julia Coronado Nearly all private sector forecasters predict slowing economic growth. Though delayed in the US last year by the sugar rush from the fiscal stimulus, it started to take hold abroad. Patience on the part of global monetary policy makers and the Chinese fiscal stimulus will likely combine to keep the US and global economies in soft landing territory, but uncertainty is higher than usual. More...
Macroeconomy
Public property: the central role of government information Thursday, February 7 Julia Coronado As we recover from the longest federal government shutdown in history – and face the possibility of another one – it’s a good time to reflect on the value of public goods and services. Much government data was not available during the shutdown, and its contribution to private and public sector decision-making is complex and profound. More...
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